As I sit here watching playoff highlights from last season, I can't help but draw parallels between championship-level performances and what we might see at this year's NBA 3-Point Contest. Having covered basketball for over a decade, I've developed this theory that pressure situations in the playoffs often reveal who has the mental fortitude to excel in events like the three-point shootout. Remember when Steph Curry hit those clutch threes in Game 4 against Boston? That's the kind of ice-cold composure that separates contenders from pretenders in the All-Star weekend spectacle.
The landscape has shifted dramatically since last year's contest, and if you ask me, we're looking at one of the most unpredictable fields in recent memory. Damian Lillard's victory last year felt almost inevitable - the man had been knocking on the door for years, and his 26 points in the final round demonstrated that persistence pays off. But here's what fascinates me about the 2024 edition: we're seeing this interesting convergence of established veterans and hungry newcomers who've been lighting up the regular season. The data doesn't lie - teams are attempting nearly 35 three-pointers per game this season compared to just 22 a decade ago, which means we have more qualified shooters than ever before.
When I analyze potential winners, my eyes keep drifting toward two particular players who embody that championship DNA we were discussing earlier. Tyrese Haliburton has been absolutely sensational from beyond the arc this season, connecting on roughly 42% of his attempts while taking nearly eight per game. What impresses me most about Haliburton isn't just the percentage - it's the degree of difficulty. He's taking threes from well beyond the NBA logo and making them look routine. Having watched him develop over the past three seasons, I've noticed his release has gotten quicker while maintaining that beautiful, high-arcing trajectory that seems to kiss the net every time it goes through.
Then there's the veteran presence of Stephen Curry, who at 35 continues to redefine what's possible from long range. I know, I know - he hasn't won this thing since 2021, and some might argue he's lost a step. But watch him closely this season, and you'll see he's actually expanded his range while maintaining that lightning-quick release. The numbers support this - Curry is shooting a career-best 44% from 30+ feet this season, which is just absurd when you think about it. Having witnessed his shooting routine up close during training camps, I can tell you that nobody prepares for these moments quite like Steph. His practice sessions involve shooting from spots that aren't even on the court map, which gives him this psychological edge when he steps into the brightly lit arena during All-Star weekend.
What many casual fans don't realize is how much the contest format favors certain types of shooters. The money ball rack placement, the time constraint, the pressure of the spotlight - these elements create a unique challenge that doesn't always translate from game performance. I've spoken with several past participants who've told me the rhythm of the contest is completely different from in-game shooting. That's why dark horses like Desmond Bane or Lauri Markkanen could surprise people. Bane in particular has this methodical, repeatable form that holds up beautifully under pressure. His 41% conversion rate from the corners this season might not jump off the page, but when you need one shot to win it all, I'd want someone with that calm, collected approach.
The venue itself plays a bigger role than most people acknowledge. Indianapolis' Gainbridge Fieldhouse has its own shooting background and depth perception challenges that will affect some shooters more than others. Having attended contests in multiple arenas over the years, I've seen how the backdrop can mess with a shooter's depth perception, especially for those who rely more on visual cues. This might give an edge to players who've competed there recently or those with more versatile shooting forms that aren't as dependent on specific visual alignment.
My personal prediction? I'm leaning toward Haliburton to take home the trophy, with Curry as my runner-up. There's something about Haliburton's story that feels right - the hometown hero angle, his incredible shooting growth this season, and that effortless-looking stroke that seems tailor-made for the contest format. But I'll admit part of this is emotional - as someone who's followed his career since his Sacramento days, I've always believed he had this in him. The numbers suggest he should score around 28 points in the final round based on his current shooting percentages and the contest's shot distribution.
Ultimately, what makes the three-point contest so compelling year after year is that it tests something fundamental yet spectacular about modern basketball. We've moved beyond the era where this was just a side show - today's contestants are among the game's most impactful players, and their performance here often foreshadows playoff success. The connection between handling pressure in February and delivering in May or June is stronger than many realize. So when we watch these elite shooters line up in Indianapolis, we're not just watching an All-Star event - we're getting a glimpse of who might be ready to hit that season-defining three-pointer when everything is on the line.
